💵 Dollar and Argentine economy: exchange rate calm, inflationary expectations and market signals

The zero gap marks an atypical day as analysts project a 2026 with lower inflation and a higher dollar

The price of the dollar was once again at the center of the Argentine economic agenda, in a context where exchange rate stability coexists with expectations of future correction. Both the official and parallel markets showed practically identical values, an unusual phenomenon that generates different readings among economists and financial operators.

✅ Today's quotes: stability on all fronts

The official dollar was around $1430 for purchase and $1450 for sale, while the blue dollar traded at the same values. The exchange rate gap, therefore, remained at 0%, a scenario that is not usually sustained for long periods in the Argentine economy.

The tourist dollar, which incorporates an additional 30% over the official exchange rate, was positioned near $1503.40, maintaining its stable trend.

For analysts, this calm responds to a combination of factors: exchange controls, lower seasonal demand and moderate expectations of devaluation in the short term.

✅ Inflation: projections of deceleration towards 2026

The Central Bank's latest Market Expectations Survey (REM) anticipates a monthly inflation scenario  of around 1.5% for May 2026, consolidating the downward trend that began to be observed in 2025.

Although the slowdown is seen as a positive sign, specialists warn that the process will depend on the recomposition of relative prices, fiscal policy and the evolution of the exchange rate.

✅ The dollar towards 2026: gradual correction, not a sharp jump

Private consultants project that the dollar could be close to $1,720 by the end of 2026, in line with a progressive adjustment of the exchange rate. The market consensus points to an orderly movement, without abrupt shocks, although conditioned by the government's ability to maintain fiscal balance and investor confidence.

✅ Financial market: caution in the face of new debt issuance

The auction of the Bonar 2029N, the first issuance of debt in dollars in eight years, generated expectation among investors. The result will be key to gauging the market's appetite for Argentine assets and the perception of the country's ability to refinance itself in foreign currency.

In the last round, bonds and stocks showed slight declines, reflecting a cautious stance pending definitions on January maturities.

✅ What does this day leave

• The zero exchange rate gap is a striking fact that could anticipate a readjustment.
• The projected downward inflation is an encouraging, if fragile, sign.
• The expected exchange rate for 2026 suggests a moderate adjustment.
• The issuance of debt in dollars will be a key thermometer for market confidence.

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