China displaces Brazil as Argentina's main trading partner: analysis of a historic change

An unexpected turn in Argentina's foreign trade contradicts the official discourse and marks a milestone in regional economic relations

In a move that few anticipated at the beginning of Javier Milei's administration, China has managed to displace Brazil as Argentina's main trading partner, marking a turning point in the country's recent economic history. This change, first registered in September 2024 and consolidated in October of the same year, represents a political paradox that exposes the distance between presidential rhetoric and economic reality.

The time for change

The milestone came in September 2024, when the Asian giant surpassed the Brazilian neighbor in total trade with Argentina. Argentine exports to China tripled that month, reaching record figures driven mainly by extraordinary sales of soybeans. Simultaneously, imports from the Asian country reached 1,816 million dollars, the highest level in the entire historical series.

This transformation is especially relevant considering that Brazil had maintained its leadership position for decades, supported by geographical proximity, Mercosur membership and significant productive integration, especially in the automotive sector.

A political paradox

China's rise as a major trading partner is particularly striking when considering the campaign speech of President Milei, who in 2023 had emphatically declared: "Not only am I not going to do business with China, I am not going to do business with any communists." However, economic reality imposed a different narrative.

According to official INDEC data, in October 2024 China consolidated its leadership with Argentine exports of 1,166 million dollars (a year-on-year increase of 241.4%) and imports of 1,862 million dollars (increase of 33.7%). In that same period, the United States was relegated to fourth place, also surpassed by Brazil and the European Union.

The engines of exchange

On the Argentine side

Trade with China is characterized by a marked concentration in primary products and manufactures of agricultural origin. The main export items include:

• Soy beans and their derivatives (oil and flour)
• Frozen beef (accounting for 78.8% of the sector's exports)
• Lithium carbonate
• Fish products (squid, shrimp and prawns)
• Barley and sorghum in grain

The meat sector deserves special attention: China has become the destination of 78.8% of Argentine beef exports in November 2024, absorbing most of the exportable balance in a context of local drought and domestic market without absorption capacity.

On the Chinese side

China's insertion in the Argentine economy is characterized by products with greater added value and diversification:

• Capital goods and machinery
• Automotive Parts & Accessories
• Technological components (phone parts, transmission equipment)
• Consumer Semi-Durables and Durable Goods
• Miscellaneous industrial inputs

This asymmetry reproduces an unequal trade pattern: while Argentina provides raw materials, China exports finished products and intermediate goods with higher added value.

The international context

Brazil's displacement responds to multiple geopolitical and economic factors:

Sino-U.S. Trade War: Tariff tensions between Washington and Beijing placed Argentine soybeans in an advantageous competitive position, especially after the temporary elimination of withholdings implemented by the Argentine government in September.

Need for foreign currency: Pressed by the urgency to obtain dollars, Milei's government implemented a temporary special regime to eliminate withholdings that generated a 201.7% year-on-year increase in exports to China in September.

Anticipation of changes: The increase in imports was favored by business decisions to bring forward purchases in the face of a possible change in the exchange rate regime after the elimination of the clamp.

The cost of dependency

The trade balance with China reveals an unbalanced relationship. In 2024, the trade deficit reached $5.616 billion, the largest recorded with any trading partner. This gap is explained by the differential between what Argentina manages to sell (mainly commodities with falling prices) and what it must buy (technology and value-added goods).

Miguel Ponce, an economist specializing in foreign trade, warns about the risks of this situation: "Argentina should not privilege ideological issues over concrete interests. It is very difficult for us to displace China from our trading partners. There is a need to de-ideologize our diplomatic ties so as not to continue damaging our trade and economic relations."

Strategic implications

Chinese dominance poses several structural challenges:

Economic vulnerability: Excessive concentration in a single market exposes Argentina to political decisions by Beijing. Any change in Chinese import policies could have devastating effects on key sectors such as agriculture.

Financial dependence: Beyond trade, Argentina has significant financial commitments to China, including the currency swap for 5,000 million dollars plus interest of 6%, whose eventual demand for payment by Beijing would increase the deficit of net reserves by 50%.

Regional impact: Provinces such as Catamarca, La Pampa and Entre Ríos, with high dependence on exports to China, are particularly exposed to any fluctuation in the bilateral relationship.

New opportunities

Not everything is negative in this commercial link. In March 2025, the Argentine government agreed with Chinese Customs to reopen poultry meat exports (closed since 2023 due to avian influenza) and to enable new products such as nuts (walnuts, pecans, almonds, hazelnuts and pistachios) and gallstones for medicinal use.

These openings represent opportunities for regional economies and could allow for greater diversification of the export basket, although they will hardly alter the basic structure of trade.

Future prospects

The displacement of Brazil by China as Argentina's main trading partner does not seem to be temporary. Projections indicate that this trend could deepen by 2025, especially considering:

• China's Growing Demand for Animal Proteins and Oilseeds
• Argentina's need to maintain a steady flow of foreign currency
• China's investments in infrastructure and technology in the country
• The global geopolitical context that favors supplier diversification

For Brazil, this shift represents a warning sign about the need to strengthen trade ties within Mercosur. For Argentina, the challenge is to pragmatically manage this strategic relationship without compromising market diversification or sovereignty in political decisions.

Conclusion

China's rise as Argentina's main trading partner marks an unprecedented chapter in the country's economic history. Beyond political statements and ideological alignments, the Asian giant's influence on Argentina's foreign trade is a reality that transcends governments and discourses.

The question that remains open is whether Argentina will succeed in turning this relationship into an opportunity for development with greater added value, or whether it will deepen its role as a supplier of raw materials in an increasingly polarized global economy. The answer to this question will define not only the future of the bilateral relationship, but also the model of international insertion that Argentina will build in the coming decades.

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🏆 2026 World Cup: this is how the fixture looked after the draw in Washington

The draw for the 2026 World Cup, held at the Kennedy Center in Washington, officially defined the composition of the 12 groups that will play the first phase of the tournament to be played in  the United States, Mexico and Canada. With 48 teams and an expanded format, the World Cup presents an unprecedented calendar that is already beginning to outline the path of the candidates.

The ceremony left key certainties: the hosts knew in advance their venues and debut dates, while the rest of the selected teams completed their zones in a draw full of expectation.

🇦🇷 Argentina, top seed in Group J

The world champion team was placed in Group J, where it will face Algeria, Austria and Jordan, as confirmed by the official draw.

Fixture de Argentina

• Argentina vs. Algeria – Tuesday, June 16
• Argentina vs. Austria – Monday, June 22
• Argentina vs. Jordan – Saturday, June 27

The team led by Lionel Scaloni will play the group stage in San Francisco, Dallas and Kansas City, according to media present at the ceremony.

With the new format, Argentina will be able to advance to  the 16th finals if it finishes in the top two of its zone or if it is among the eight best third-placed teams.

🌎 The kick-off and the agenda of the hosts

The tournament will begin on June 11 at the Azteca Stadium, where Mexico will debut against South Africa in Group A. A day later it will be the turn of the other hosts:

• Canada will debut in Toronto (Group B).
• The United States will play in Los Angeles (Group D).

The final will be played on July 19 at MetLife Stadium in  New Jersey.

📌 How the most outstanding groups were

The draw also left attractive crossings in other areas, with the presence of emerging powers and teams:

• Group G: Belgium, Egypt, Iran and New Zealand
• Group H: Spain, Saudi Arabia, Uruguay and Cape Verde
• Group I: France, Senegal, Norway and the winner of the FIFA play-offs
• Group L: England, Croatia, Panama and Ghana

The distribution of teams anticipates a group stage with high-voltage duels and several candidates forced not to fail from the start.

🔍 A World Cup with a renewed format

The 2026 World Cup will be the first with 48 teams, distributed in 12 groups of four. Classified:

• The top two in each group
• The eight best third-placed

This will lead to an unprecedented instance of the 16th finals, expanding the total number of matches and increasing competitiveness in the initial phase.

🎯 Conclusion

The draw left a vibrant outlook for the 2026 World Cup. Argentina will have an accessible group on paper, but with opponents who will demand concentration from the debut. With a defined calendar and confirmed venues, the countdown to a historic World Cup begins due to its magnitude and its new format.

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📰 Whirlpool closes its plant in Pilar and stops production in Argentina

📍 The announcement

The US multinational Whirlpool announced on November 26, 2025 the closure of its plant in Pilar, where it manufactured washing machines for the domestic market and export. The decision involves the dismissal of 220 employees, including operators, management and supply chain personnel.

The company explained that from now  on it will concentrate its operation on sales and services, guaranteeing the supply of appliances, accessories and spare parts throughout the country, but through the import of products.

📉 The reasons for the closure

According to the company, the measure responds to:

• Fall in domestic consumption, which reduced the demand for household appliances.
• Growing competition from imported products, which displaced local production.
• Lack of competitiveness in exports, which affected the viability of the business.
• A global process of review of productive structures, with a focus on efficiency and reallocation of resources.

👥 Impact on workers

The closure generated a strong social impact in Pilar. The dismissed employees decided to remain at the plant as a form of protest and resistance, demanding answers to the loss of their jobs.

Meanwhile, Whirlpool assured that it will maintain its commercial and distribution office in Argentina, with between 100 and 120 employees, preserving its presence in the country as it has done for 35 years.

🌐 Industrial context

The Pilar plant had been inaugurated in 2022 with an investment of 50 million dollars, aimed at producing state-of-the-art washing machines. However, just three years later, the company decided to abandon local production.

This closure is in addition to other recent cases in the national industry, where companies such as Essen also had to reduce personnel due to the fall in consumption.

🎯 Final Thoughts

The closure of Whirlpool in Pilar reflects the structural difficulties of the Argentine industry, marked by low domestic demand, import pressure and a lack of export competitiveness. Although the brand will continue to market its products in the country, the decision represents a blow to employment and national production, leaving open the discussion on the future of the Argentine industrial sector.

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Argentina breaks the consensus in the G20: an unprecedented position that marks alignment with the US and questions the approach to the Middle East.

🌍 Context of the Summit

The G20 Leaders' Summit held in Johannesburg, South Africa, was marked by a historic event: Argentina decided not to sign the final declaration, becoming the only country to reject the document promoted by the South African presidency. The decision was announced by Foreign Minister Pablo Quirno, who represented the country in the absence of President Javier Milei.

📌 Arguments of the Foreign Ministry

• Complexity of the conflict in the Middle East: Quirno pointed out that the text "simplifies a problem that requires a broader and more balanced approach."
• Defense of the principle of consensus: The Argentine Foreign Ministry denounced a "break with the historical rules of the forum," by approving a document without the endorsement of all members.
• Alignment with the United States: Argentina's position was in tune with Washington, which also questioned the geopolitical focus of the text.

🔎 Political implications

• An unprecedented event: It is the first time that the G20 summit does not conclude with a communiqué agreed upon by all countries.
• Diplomatic repercussions: The decision generated discomfort in South Africa and raised questions about Argentina's role in future multilateral forums.
• New international positioning: Milei's government seeks to strengthen its closeness to the U.S. and distance itself from positions it considers partial in global conflicts.

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