Two major U.S. investment banks, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America, published reports on Argentina's macroeconomic scenario and its outlook for the financial market in 2025. Both agreed on the importance of the country reaching a new agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to advance in a gradual process of eliminating the exchange rate clamp.

Morgan Stanley Outlook

The Morgan Stanley report  warned that Argentina'  s current account showed signs of deterioration in the second half of 2024. However, he noted that a surplus in the financial account could make up for this shortfall. The IMF projected an initial disbursement of USD 5 billion by the IMF in 2025, as part of a program that could reach USD 20 billion, subject to compliance with fiscal and monetary conditions.

According to the analysis, the elimination of exchange restrictions will be progressive and will depend on the accumulation of international reserves. Morgan Stanley estimated that Argentina's central bank (BCRA) could increase its net reserves by USD 7 billion during the year, which would provide room for further flexibility in foreign exchange market access.

Bank of America Analysis

For its part, Bank of America highlighted that the  Argentine government's fiscal adjustment strategy  made it possible to reduce country risk and improve access to external financing. The bank agreed with the expectation of an agreement with the IMF in the first half of 2025, specifically before April. In addition, it projected that initial disbursements could range between USD 5,000 and USD 10,000 million, which would strengthen the BCRA's position.

Accumulation of reserves and exit strategy from the clamps

Morgan Stanley analyzed in detail the relationship between exchange rate policy and reserve accumulation. According to its projections, the  country's financial account could generate a surplus of USD 9,800 million in 2025, driven by disbursements from multilateral organizations, corporate financing and purchases of foreign currency by the private sector.

In this scenario, the exit from the exchange clamp would take place in a staggered manner. The entity projected that the Government would advance in the normalization of the payment of imports and in the flexibility of access to the financial dollar. However, it would maintain restrictions on the purchase of foreign currency by individuals and companies until reserves reach an adequate level.

Agreement with the IMF and access to international credit

Bank of America stressed that the success of the economic program underway will depend on the government's ability to negotiate a new agreement with the IMF. This agreement would allow debt payments to be refinanced and fiscal sustainability to be improved.

Morgan Stanley also emphasized that the relationship with the IMF is decisive for the evolution of country risk. If the government manages to advance in a new program with credible fiscal and monetary targets, sovereign bonds could continue their upward trend, improving financing conditions.

However, the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, referred to the market speculation about the agreement with the IMF. On his X account  (formerly Twitter), he ironized: "Nothing that is being said about the agreement with the Fund is correct. It's hard to miss everything, but they're succeeding!".

Risks and challenges for the economic program

Both banks identified several risks that could affect Argentina's economic and financial stability in 2025. Among the main factors of uncertainty were:

1. Delays in the negotiation with the IMF, which could generate tensions in the debt market.
2. An insufficient level of international reserves, which would make it difficult to get out of the exchange clamp in an orderly manner.
3. A context of real appreciation of the peso, which could harm the competitiveness of exports.
4. External shocks that affect access to financing, also related to exchange rate appreciation.

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Voracious fire in Epuyén (Chubut).

A fierce forest fire in Epuyén, where hundreds of people had to be evacuated and several houses were destroyed. High temperatures and wind gusts of up to 70 km/h made containment work difficult.

The evacuation of hundreds of people and the destruction of several homes. High temperatures and strong winds have hampered firefighters' efforts to contain the fire. Among the evacuees is Mayor José Contreras, who also had to leave his home due to the advance of the fire.

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Amnesty International's Harsh Report on Anti-Picketing Protocol: "Dissent at Risk"

Amnesty International (AI) presented a report on Thursday in which it denounced the "disproportionate" use of force by the government of Javier Milei in response to the demonstrations. According to the organization, the federal security forces followed a repressive pattern based on the "anti-picket protocol" promoted by Minister Patricia Bullrich.

What Amnesty International's report says

According to AI, the report on the repression of social protest yielded alarming figures: during 15 demonstrations, 1,155 people were injured, many of them seriously injured. Of these, 33 were hit in the head or face by rubber bullets, which caused severe damage to their vision. In addition, 50 journalists were injured while covering the protests.

In total, 73 people were "criminalized" for participating in the demonstrations. The report details that documented repressive practices include the abusive use of tear gas, rubber bullets, water trucks, batons and batons, and arbitrary detentions. "In emblematic cases, children were even affected by repressive violence," the organization's text said.

Paola García Rey, deputy director of Amnesty International, explained that the report reveals a clear restriction on the exercise of freedom of expression "in the streets" and a "shrinking of civic space."

Regarding the data that support the report, García Rey pointed out that the organization resorted to various methodologies, such as requests for access to public information from the national state, which were in many cases "denied by the Ministry of Security of the Nation."

 30 testimonies of victims who suffered the disproportionate use of force. We also survey images because, now, social networks enable much more dissemination," he explained.

In this sense, he stressed the importance of making violence visible, assuring that "giving an account of the situation of alarm in the face of violence" seeks to highlight how force is used to restrict dissent and "silence voices". Amnesty's representative in Argentina also stressed that, although the country "has a very active use of the street," this does not justify the government's repressive response.

"Without a doubt, Argentina has a very active use of the street and, surely, it was necessary to have a robust debate on the channeling of popular demands to the Government. But the answer can never be fear as a way to inhibit expression and violence as a strategy to achieve it," he said.

Meanwhile, the organization considers that the repression of protests not only infringes fundamental rights, but also generates an inhibitory effect on citizen participation and the exercise of democracy.

Recommendations to the national government

By way of conclusion, the report concludes with a series of recommendations to Milei's government. "Amnesty International urges the Argentine government to adopt concrete measures that guarantee respect for human rights in the context of social protests," the text emphasizes.

Among these measures, the repeal of the anti-picketing protocol  stands out, a regulation that, according to the organization, "not only violates fundamental human rights, but also contributes to the criminalization of those who demonstrate." In addition, they urge the implementation of police regulations and trainings that align with international standards on the right to peaceful assembly and the use of force.

"The use of force by the authorities must be framed by principles of proportionality and respect for human rights," the report concludes

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Police

Investigation into the suspicious death of a federal judge who intervened in a case linked to Los Monos

This is Pablo Seró, who was in charge of the case of the kidnapping of businessman Gastón Tallone. Prosecutor María Occhi is considering the hypothesis of suicide, but there is still a need for expert reports to be carried out

The Entre Ríos Police are investigating the suspicious death of Federal Judge Pablo Andrés Seró, who died this morning when he fell from the terrace of a building in the city of Concepción del Uruguay. He is the magistrate who intervened in the case of the kidnapping and disappearance of businessman Gastón Tallone, linked to the drug gang Los Monos.

According to local media reports, the tragic event occurred after 10 a.m. on Thursday in the Antares building, located at 600 General Galarza Street, right at the intersection with Eva Duarte de Perón.

Sources from the provincial Ministry of Security consulted by Infobae explained that, so far, the main and only hypothesis being considered by the team of prosecutor María Occhi, who was on duty at the time of the event, is that of death by self-determination. However, the results of the experts will be awaited to confirm the circumstances in which the Seró fell into the void.

According to what this media was able to find out, his mother currently resides in the building from where Seró fell, who was not at home at the time of the event.

Seró, 55, head of the Federal Court of Concepción del Uruguay, died on the spot as a result of the serious injuries he suffered after falling into the void.

One of the heaviest cases being handled in his court was that of the kidnapping of Tallone. For that case, Gustavo Juliá, who served a 13-year prison sentence for drug trafficking in Spain, had been arrested ten days ago. He is the son of Brigadier José Juliá, head of the Argentine Air Force during the presidency of Carlos Saúl Menem

The kidnapping of the port businessman from Entre Ríos occurred in Almagro, but it has connections with his work in that area and with the Los Monos gang. Juliá Jr. owns one of the cars that executed the criminal maneuver.

The kidnapping would have been, as suspected, for a debt of 500,000 dollars with that organized crime group.

According to documents in the case accessed by Infobae, lawyer José Uriburu, linked to Los Monos, would have made the first extortion call to Tallone's family to claim that money: "Good night cumpa, the thing is short. The thief is here with us and he's fine. Or they return the drugs and the 500 thousand dollars that he stole and everything ends and he comes back, he stole from all the narcos and now it's time to pay. If you beat the cane, we will go down and go for all of you and your helpers. You don't with the mafia," he reportedly said.

The clarification of the case is in charge of prosecutors Josefina Minata and Santiago Marquevich, of the Specialized Prosecutorial Unit in Organized Crime. The Federal Court of Concepción del Uruguay had prosecuted the lawyer Uriburu and an alleged deliverer of the businessman.

Who was Judge Pablo Seró

Born on May 23, 1969 in the town of Goya in Corrientes, Dr. Seró graduated as a lawyer from the National University of the Northeast in 1994 and took office in 2012 as head of the Federal Court of Concepción del Uruguay, from where he worked in public office with all federal crimes in the city and the area.

The magistrate, a reference of the Entre Ríos Justice, knew how to be linked to causes of great public interest, including the investigation of the alleged Iranian citizen who presented himself as Asan Azad, arrested in June 2022 without personal documentation when he tried to buy a ticket in Concepción del Uruguay with an Argentine ID of another person.

The personnel of the Entre Ríos Police work at the scene together with the Criminalistics Division. Sources in the case told this newspaper that, as of after 1:30 p.m., investigators had not yet been able to find Seró's cell phone.

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