Halfway through his third year in office, President Javier Milei faces a scenario crossed by contradictory signals. While the ruling party manages to unblock key votes in Congress and consolidates its capacity for parliamentary negotiation, polls describe a sustained deterioration of the presidential image and a social mood increasingly hit by economic pessimism. The analyses published by Perfil and La Nación coincide in the same diagnosis: the attrition is advancing, although it has not yet found an electoral alternative to capitalize on it.

📌 X-RAY IN NUMBERS

Sources: Giacobbe & Asociados, Monitor UBA, Pulso Research, Opinaia, CB Global Data and BAE Negocios. The ranges reflect methodological differences between consulting firms.

Public opinion data released in recent weeks show an economic picture that is perceived harshly. According to Giacobbe & Associates, 58% of the population maintains that the general economic situation worsens, a diagnosis that the UBA Monitor raises to 59%. Along the same lines, the Confidence in Government Index prepared by the Torcuato Di Tella University registered a monthly drop of 6.5% in July, with a cumulative decline of 21.5% since the end of 2025, according to the analysis published by La Nación.

The presidential image reflects the same downward movement, although with nuances according to the consultancy. Pulso Research placed the negative evaluation of the administration at 54.8% compared to a 37.2% positive image – the lowest record in its historical series – according to the review of five public opinion studies published by Perfil between March and July. Other surveys, such as that of Opinaia, show a somewhat less adverse picture: 46% approval, with a slight recovery compared to the floor recorded in June.

Beyond the management numbers, the social mood continues to be the most eloquent indicator. A study by consultant Hugo Haime, cited by La Nación, found that 42% of Argentines declare themselves sad and discouraged, 34% express anger and only 20% are happy and hopeful with the direction of the country.

The podium of concerns was also rearranged. According to the Synopsis survey taken up by La Nación, corruption leads the ranking with 33.4% of the mentions, followed by unemployment (28%), education (10.5%) and insecurity (9.2%); inflation, on the other hand, fell to fifth place with just 8.4%, despite being one of the few fronts where the government exhibits concrete results. Other measurements, such as that of Opinaia, place unemployment in first place with 63% of mentions and poverty in second place with 59%.

While the social mood deteriorates, Congress became the stage where the ruling party manages to show concrete results. The approval of the labor reform in the Senate – with 42 votes in favor, 28 against and two abstentions – was described as the greatest legislative victory of the administration, the product of the negotiation led by Senator Patricia Bullrich. To this milestone was added the sanction of the lowering of the age of imputability, another of the historical flags of the libertarian space.

With only 95 of the 257 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 21 of the 72 in the Senate, La Libertad Avanza does not have its own majority and depends on agreements with dialogue blocs to unblock each vote. For the second half of the year, the political table defined as priorities the reform of the Central Bank's Organic Charter – which would prohibit the financing of the Treasury via monetary issuance – the expansion of the Fiscal Innocence Law and, as an objective of greater strategic weight, the elimination of the PASO for the presidential elections of 2027.

Not all initiatives have the same fate. The "Inviolability of Private Property" bill, linked to the foreignization of land, reached the Chamber of Deputies with half the approval of the Senate but cut from its most controversial chapters, after a CB Global Data survey revealed that 77% of those consulted support limiting the purchase of land by foreigners. The discussion even led to a mobilization in front of Congress, a precedent that the ruling party evaluates as a sensitive social limit.

The Perfil report, which compares five consulting firms between March and July, identifies March as the turning point: it was then that, for the first time since the beginning of the administration, a survey by Pulso Research showed that more respondents blamed the current government (46.9%) than the previous administration (41.6%) for the economic situation. The media also highlights that the labor reform, despite its parliamentary success, failed to establish itself as a political triumph and was read by a large part of society as a measure favorable to employers.

From La Nación, two opinion columns describe similar nuances with different readings. In "Milei, in the face of the danger of 'toxic rigidity'", the analysis connects Manuel Adorni's departure from the government with the persistence of attrition, despite the drop in inflation. On the other hand, the column "Milei and the polls: not good, but not so bad either" qualifies the diagnosis by recalling that, according to a comparative study, the government's current approval is higher than that shown by his two immediate predecessors at the same height of his administration.

The data most cited by analysts is, however, a paradox. According to Giacobbe & Associates, for every percentage point that social tolerance for the adjustment recedes, the intention to vote for La Libertad Avanza falls by around 0.9 points, an almost mathematical correlation between economics and politics. Other measurements deepen this discomfort: a study by CB Global Data found that 54.5% of those consulted prefer a change of government compared to 33.4% who support continuity, while a survey by BAE Negocios raised that figure to 61.9%.

Despite this deterioration, no opposition space has so far managed to capitalize on the discontent. Mayol himself warned that the electorate that moves away from the ruling party does not migrate to the Kirchnerist options, which leaves open one of the central questions for 2027. In this context, the ruling party retains some of the best-valued figures on the political chessboard: Patricia Bullrich leads the ranking of positive image in the Opinaia measurement, followed by Milei himself and Vice President Victoria Villarruel.

With an eye on reelection, the Casa Rosada defined three axes for the rest of the year: sanctioning as many projects as possible pending in Congress, deepening the electoral operation towards 2027 and strengthening agreements with allied provinces. The underlying challenge, according to the analyses of Perfil and La Nación, will be to sustain this double chessboard – legislative victories inside Congress and a social mood that has not yet been reversed – during the decisive months that remain until the next presidential election.

Methodological note: the figures cited come from different consulting firms (Giacobbe & Asociados, Pulso Research, Opinaia, UBA, Di Tella, Synopsis, CB Global Data, BAE Negocios, Hugo Haime), each with its own methodology and margins of error, so the percentages should be read as trends rather than as exact figures comparable to each other.

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📚 SOURCES CONSULTED

Profile — Survey: five consulting firms analyze how the relationship between Milei and public opinion changed during 2026

Profile — Milei retains his competitiveness despite economic malaise and LLA raises his electoral ceiling to 55%

La Nación — Milei, facing the danger of "toxic rigidity"

La Nación — Milei and the polls: not good, but not so bad either

La Nación — Milei vs. Cristina: the international fight

Polls show Milei's wear and tear, but the ruling party resists as the first minority

Infobae — The legislative victories that Milei achieved in the first half of the year

BAE Business — More than 61.9% would vote for a change in government

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