ECONOMY · ARGENTINA · IMF
IMF returns to Argentina: third review of agreement begins as tension grows over poverty data
A technical mission from the agency arrives in Buenos Aires on Monday to audit fiscal and reserve targets and unlock about US$900 million. At the same time, the government is waiting for the INDEC report that could mark the first six-month increase in poverty during Javier Milei's administration.
🕒 Reading time: 5 minutes | 📅 September 19, 2026 | ✍️ Economy Editorial Team
A technical mission from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will disembark this Monday, September 21, in Buenos Aires to begin the third review of the Extended Facilities (EFF) program in force with Argentina, a key step to enable a new transfer of funds in the midst of a calendar full of maturities and just hours before the INDEC releases a poverty data that anticipates a social setback.
The delegation, led by the head of mission for Argentina, Joyce Wong, will hold meetings with the economic team to evaluate compliance with the quantitative goals set for the end of June, as planned in the official schedule of the organization. The meeting comes in an atypical week for the government: the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, will not be present at the start of the talks because he will travel with President Javier Milei to New York to participate in the United Nations General Assembly.
💵 A disbursement of almost US$900 million at stake
The review is part of the $20 billion arrangement approved in April 2025 under the Fund's Extended Facility, with total access to around $21 billion. By May, at the close of the second review and Article IV consultation, the IMF board had released a disbursement of close to $1 billion, bringing the program's cumulative drawings to about $15.8 billion.
Of the US$1,900 million programmed for all of 2026, there would remain about US$900 million subject to the result of this new assessment, equivalent to 636 million of Special Drawing Rights. The disbursement is not automatic: first the technical talks must advance and then the review needs the endorsement of the Executive Board of the organization in Washington.
"The Fund monitors the delinquency of Argentine households, but does not consider it a risk to the stability of the financial system."
🏦 Reserves: an overachieved goal
The exchange rate front appears as one of the most favorable data for the government. The program set a net foreign exchange purchase guideline of US$10 billion for 2026, and the Central Bank has already accumulated more than US$14.2 billion, some US$4.2 billion above that reference. As for the specific net reserves target, set at US$8 billion, different private consultants place the current level at close to US$9 billion, also above what was agreed.
📉 Fiscal balance, the most discussed point
The agreement contemplates a primary surplus equivalent to 1.4% of GDP for all of 2026. However, in the first half of the year, the fiscal result stood at 0.6% of GDP, just below the proportional half of that annual target. Among the factors that explain the deviation, the government itself mentions changes in the payment terms of income tax, weaker collection linked to tax cuts and the slowdown in economic activity. For this reason, revenue, public spending, tax changes and the progress of the real economy will be at the center of the technical discussion in Buenos Aires.
⏳ Deadlines just around the corner
🔸 Friday, September 25: maturity with the IMF for US$803 million.
🔸 November 2026: new payment of US$840 million.
🔸 December 2026: additional commitment of US$344 million.
The payment schedule makes this review a particularly sensitive instance: the technical approval not only enables new funds, but also reinforces the program's sustainability signal in the face of commitments that expire in the coming weeks.
📊 The other magnifying glass: the poverty data that is known on September 24
In parallel to the technical negotiation, INDEC will publish on September 24 the poverty index for the first half of 2026, prepared from the Permanent Household Survey. Different private estimates anticipate a rise in the indicator, which would go from 28.2% recorded in the second half of 2025 to a range of between 30% and 31.6%. If confirmed, it would be the first six-month increase in poverty during Javier Milei's administration.
According to calculations by the consulting firm ExQuanti, the number of people under the poverty line would go from 13.4 million to 15.1 million in just six months, an increase of 1.7 million new poor. The nowcast of the Torcuato Di Tella University projects 31.6%, while the Social Debt Observatory of the UCA had estimated 30% for the first quarter of the year. The government itself admits that the number could be between 30% and 31%.
The contrast with the financial negotiation does not go unnoticed: while the IMF highlights the over-fulfillment of reserve targets, the social front shows signs of deterioration that could affect the political reading of the program and the discussion on the design of the next disbursements.
🗓️ What to expect in the coming weeks
The technical teams of the Fund and the Ministry of Finance will hold meetings over the next few days in Buenos Aires. If the talks progress smoothly, the review could be submitted to the Executive Board in Washington in the following weeks, thus enabling the pending disbursement before the end of the year and simultaneously with the maturities of November and December.
🖼️ REFERENCE IMAGE (absolute link to the original source)
See reference photograph — Photo: AP Photo / Gustavo Garello, published in Todo Jujuy
🔑 The key numbers of the review
|
Total EFF Settlement Amount
|
US$ 20,000-21,000 M
|
|
Accumulated disbursement to date
|
≈ US$ 15,800 M
|
|
At stake in this 3rd review
|
≈ US$ 900 M
|
|
Fiscal surplus target 2026
|
1.4% of GDP
|
|
Fiscal Result 1st Half 2026
|
0.6% of GDP
|
|
BCRA net purchase target
|
US$ 10,000 M
|
|
Net purchases already made
|
US$ 14,200 M
|
|
Net reserves goal 2026
|
US$ 8,000 M
|
|
IMF maturity, 09/25/2026
|
US$ 803 M
|
|
Projected poverty, 1st week 2026
|
30% - 31,6%
|
|
Official INDEC publication
|
September 24, 2026
|
🔗 Sources consulted
🔹 Diario Río Negro — The IMF begins the third review of the agreement with Argentina
🔹 All of Jujuy — The IMF arrives in Argentina: reserves and surpluses under the magnifying glass
🔹 MDZ Online (EFE) — The IMF returns to Argentina for the third review of the agreement
🔹 Profile — IMF to Send Mission to Argentina Next Week
🔹 Cadena Laser (via TN) — An IMF mission will begin a new review on Monday
🔹 The Chancellor — The central points that will be evaluated in the third review
🔹 El Economista — Poverty skyrocketed in Argentina: 1.7 million new poor
🔹 iProfesional — Poverty estimated to have grown in the first half of 2026
🚀 SEO optimization of content
SEO Title (Meta Title): IMF in Argentina 2026: third review of the agreement and disbursement of US$900 million
Meta description: IMF mission arrives in Buenos Aires for the third review of the EFF agreement. Reserves, fiscal deficit and INDEC's poverty data, at the center of the agenda.
Suggested friendly URL: /economia/imf-tercera-revision-acuerdo-argentina-pobreza-2026
Main keyword: IMF Argentina 2026 | Secondary keywords: third revision IMF, disbursement IMF Argentina, BCRA reserves, fiscal surplus, poverty INDEC 2026, Luis Caputo, Javier Milei, EFF Extended Fund Facility.
Etiquetas/tags: #FMI #Argentina #Economía #Reservas #Pobreza #INDEC #Caputo #Milei #DeudaExterna
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Suggested internal link: previous notes on the second review of the IMF, evolution of BCRA reserves and historical poverty series of INDEC, to reinforce the topical authority of the site.
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ECONOMY · ARGENTINA · IMF
IMF returns to Argentina: third review of agreement begins as tension grows over poverty data
A technical mission from the agency arrives in Buenos Aires on Monday to audit fiscal and reserve targets and unlock about US$900 million. At the same time, the government is waiting for the INDEC report that could mark the first six-month increase in poverty during Javier Milei's administration.
🕒 Reading time: 5 minutes | 📅 September 19, 2026 | ✍️ Economy Editorial Team
A technical mission from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will disembark this Monday, September 21, in Buenos Aires to begin the third review of the Extended Facilities (EFF) program in force with Argentina, a key step to enable a new transfer of funds in the midst of a calendar full of maturities and just hours before the INDEC releases a poverty data that anticipates a social setback.
The delegation, led by the head of mission for Argentina, Joyce Wong, will hold meetings with the economic team to evaluate compliance with the quantitative goals set for the end of June, as planned in the official schedule of the organization. The meeting comes in an atypical week for the government: the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, will not be present at the start of the talks because he will travel with President Javier Milei to New York to participate in the United Nations General Assembly.
💵 A disbursement of almost US$900 million at stake
The review is part of the $20 billion arrangement approved in April 2025 under the Fund's Extended Facility, with total access to around $21 billion. By May, at the close of the second review and Article IV consultation, the IMF board had released a disbursement of close to $1 billion, bringing the program's cumulative drawings to about $15.8 billion.
Of the US$1,900 million programmed for all of 2026, there would remain about US$900 million subject to the result of this new assessment, equivalent to 636 million of Special Drawing Rights. The disbursement is not automatic: first the technical talks must advance and then the review needs the endorsement of the Executive Board of the organization in Washington.
"The Fund monitors the delinquency of Argentine households, but does not consider it a risk to the stability of the financial system."
🏦 Reserves: an overachieved goal
The exchange rate front appears as one of the most favorable data for the government. The program set a net foreign exchange purchase guideline of US$10 billion for 2026, and the Central Bank has already accumulated more than US$14.2 billion, some US$4.2 billion above that reference. As for the specific net reserves target, set at US$8 billion, different private consultants place the current level at close to US$9 billion, also above what was agreed.
📉 Fiscal balance, the most discussed point
The agreement contemplates a primary surplus equivalent to 1.4% of GDP for all of 2026. However, in the first half of the year, the fiscal result stood at 0.6% of GDP, just below the proportional half of that annual target. Among the factors that explain the deviation, the government itself mentions changes in the payment terms of income tax, weaker collection linked to tax cuts and the slowdown in economic activity. For this reason, revenue, public spending, tax changes and the progress of the real economy will be at the center of the technical discussion in Buenos Aires.
⏳ Deadlines just around the corner
🔸 Friday, September 25: maturity with the IMF for US$803 million.
🔸 November 2026: new payment of US$840 million.
🔸 December 2026: additional commitment of US$344 million.
The payment schedule makes this review a particularly sensitive instance: the technical approval not only enables new funds, but also reinforces the program's sustainability signal in the face of commitments that expire in the coming weeks.
📊 The other magnifying glass: the poverty data that is known on September 24
In parallel to the technical negotiation, INDEC will publish on September 24 the poverty index for the first half of 2026, prepared from the Permanent Household Survey. Different private estimates anticipate a rise in the indicator, which would go from 28.2% recorded in the second half of 2025 to a range of between 30% and 31.6%. If confirmed, it would be the first six-month increase in poverty during Javier Milei's administration.
According to calculations by the consulting firm ExQuanti, the number of people under the poverty line would go from 13.4 million to 15.1 million in just six months, an increase of 1.7 million new poor. The nowcast of the Torcuato Di Tella University projects 31.6%, while the Social Debt Observatory of the UCA had estimated 30% for the first quarter of the year. The government itself admits that the number could be between 30% and 31%.
The contrast with the financial negotiation does not go unnoticed: while the IMF highlights the over-fulfillment of reserve targets, the social front shows signs of deterioration that could affect the political reading of the program and the discussion on the design of the next disbursements.
🗓️ What to expect in the coming weeks
The technical teams of the Fund and the Ministry of Finance will hold meetings over the next few days in Buenos Aires. If the talks progress smoothly, the review could be submitted to the Executive Board in Washington in the following weeks, thus enabling the pending disbursement before the end of the year and simultaneously with the maturities of November and December.
🖼️ REFERENCE IMAGE (absolute link to the original source)
See reference photograph — Photo: AP Photo / Gustavo Garello, published in Todo Jujuy
🔑 The key numbers of the review
|
Total EFF Settlement Amount
|
US$ 20,000-21,000 M
|
|
Accumulated disbursement to date
|
≈ US$ 15,800 M
|
|
At stake in this 3rd review
|
≈ US$ 900 M
|
|
Fiscal surplus target 2026
|
1.4% of GDP
|
|
Fiscal Result 1st Half 2026
|
0.6% of GDP
|
|
BCRA net purchase target
|
US$ 10,000 M
|
|
Net purchases already made
|
US$ 14,200 M
|
|
Net reserves goal 2026
|
US$ 8,000 M
|
|
IMF maturity, 09/25/2026
|
US$ 803 M
|
|
Projected poverty, 1st week 2026
|
30% - 31,6%
|
|
Official INDEC publication
|
September 24, 2026
|
🔗 Sources consulted
🔹 Diario Río Negro — The IMF begins the third review of the agreement with Argentina
🔹 All of Jujuy — The IMF arrives in Argentina: reserves and surpluses under the magnifying glass
🔹 MDZ Online (EFE) — The IMF returns to Argentina for the third review of the agreement
🔹 Profile — IMF to Send Mission to Argentina Next Week
🔹 Cadena Laser (via TN) — An IMF mission will begin a new review on Monday
🔹 The Chancellor — The central points that will be evaluated in the third review
🔹 El Economista — Poverty skyrocketed in Argentina: 1.7 million new poor
🔹 iProfesional — Poverty estimated to have grown in the first half of 2026
🚀 SEO optimization of content
SEO Title (Meta Title): IMF in Argentina 2026: third review of the agreement and disbursement of US$900 million
Meta description: IMF mission arrives in Buenos Aires for the third review of the EFF agreement. Reserves, fiscal deficit and INDEC's poverty data, at the center of the agenda.
Suggested friendly URL: /economia/imf-tercera-revision-acuerdo-argentina-pobreza-2026
Main keyword: IMF Argentina 2026 | Secondary keywords: third revision IMF, disbursement IMF Argentina, BCRA reserves, fiscal surplus, poverty INDEC 2026, Luis Caputo, Javier Milei, EFF Extended Fund Facility.
Etiquetas/tags: #FMI #Argentina #Economía #Reservas #Pobreza #INDEC #Caputo #Milei #DeudaExterna
Recommended structured data: schema.org/NewsArticle with headline, datePublished (2026-09-19), dateModified, author, image (absolute URL), and mainEntityOfPage. Include Open Graph (og:title, og:description, og:image) and Twitter Card "summary_large_image" to maximize CTR on social media.
Suggested internal link: previous notes on the second review of the IMF, evolution of BCRA reserves and historical poverty series of INDEC, to reinforce the topical authority of the site.
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IMF returns to Argentina: third review of agreement begins as tension grows over poverty data
- 19/09/2026 » 10:18 by cronywell
